BeeLine in Moscow: the June failure was inevitable?

These AC & M-Consulting, Moscow Region in June 2004 for many proved to be unexpected. You bet! - The first time in many years, subscriber growth was BeeLine with a minus sign: if you believe the arithmetic, then, within months of leaving the operator more subscribers than the arrival of new. However, not all so simple, in addition to simple arithmetic there is a sly "algebra" of counting the number of active subscribers, plus a "higher mathematics" of intrigue and infighting.

"Mysterious" silent competitor

Back in early June in the "News" section, we wrote about that in the absence of symmetric and timely response to summer offer MTS ("Summer Jeans) BeeLine inevitably lose the main competitor in the speed of connections in the Moscow region. So it happened, but no one suggests he could not so grim statistics. Actually worked by two factors simultaneously: explicit "braking" Beeline-marketing and a forced reduction in the number of subscribers in the statistics. According to the manual BeeLine, the only reason, but very respectful: a severe shortage of numbering capacity. Try to understand what happened.

Numbering capacity - carrots and sticks in the hands of the Ministry of Communications?

The problem with the lack of availability concerns VimpelCom long time, but the situation in the country was not conducive to the implementation of a general, routine operation. First, the Ministry of Communications just take your time in the best tradition of developed socialism, then was abolished, reorganized and was not up to some subscribers, when the chair under the hmm ... let's say, legs wobbled. Then re-organized and divided the suddenly materialized new positions in the staffing ... In general, all were in charge. Someone saw all this well-planned sabotage, but we seem more plausible hypothesis elementary Soviet sloppiness. Anyway, the result - there is. Incidentally, just before, after controversial articles in the press still reserved for the Ministry of Communications VimpelCom code 906, as was gleefully reported to the public. True, SIM-cards with new numbers may not be sold until then, until now the government does not sign the "Rules of the distribution and use of numbering resources unified telecommunications network of the Russian Federation", but it's not terrible, just a half-two month wait. And according to optimistic forecasts of Ministry of Communications - even a month can cope with the signing. We now give the floor to himself VimpelCom, our comments will be lower.

In the second quarter of 2004, VimpelCom has faced a growing shortage of numbering capacity. This problem arose earlier than expected, due to the rapid influx of new subscribers. In this regard, as warned earlier, the company temporarily set the deadline for release of the blocked number capacity in the range from 3 to 6 months, depending on the situation in each particular region. The usual policy of VimpelCom sets the period of 6 months. In the Moscow license area term release of the blocked number capacity (disconnected numbers from the maintenance period has expired) in June was reduced to 5 months. As a result of these actions combined churn of the Company in the Moscow license area only in June increased by about 200,000 subscribers compared with the regular outflow. When using conventional policy churn market share in June to a net inflow of subscribers would have on the Company estimates approximately 40%. Since September 2003The company has repeatedly appealed to the Ministry of Communications and Information to highlight her new federal code, and additional numbering capacity. When you save the situation, the company will be forced to continue the accelerated release of the blocked number capacity. VimpelCom relies on public statements by the Ministry of Information and Communications for the early resolution of this issue and looks forward to expeditious receipt of the federal code for the continuation of strong growth.

Will not be judged on how he VimpelCom is white and fluffy "in this story, it should be possible there was something to take before, rather than leaving the decision to issue the last minute. It is not good to force the Ministry of Communications and Government rush job order for only some months to decide, which in normal circumstances would be comfortable to discuss-a couple of years. That's the same MTS numbering capacity in the relevant codes were reserved in 2001, and therefore do not experience problems, and the Ministry of Communications according to representatives of MTS works well, just wonderful:

"Once the structure of the ministry was formed, we immediately saw the concrete steps to resolve the pressing issues of the industry. In particular, renewed approval of numbering capacity for mobile operators. The present situation with the presence of number size causes no fear" - Andrei Braginsky Director of External Relations, MTS.

Crafty Stats

Translated into human language explanations / claims of VimpelCom: the number of available rooms in the code 903 ends, it is necessary to accelerate "the cycle of numbers in nature." Ie Now the number has long discarded in the trash SIM-card will be re-used not in six months, as before. In Moscow last June - after five. "Ambush" for the BeeLine that early re-use of numbers automatically reduces the number of active subscribers in statistical reports. Only 17% decreased the lifetime of dead souls in the statistics, and the influx of new subscribers magically transformed into the drain! I wonder what the figures really active subscribers of Beeline and MTS in the Moscow region? That would result in the statistics of these operators to the actual performance, as is done in the same megaphone: the subscriber is no longer considered as such in a month after zeroing the balance or termination of payment. Although 6 months of "afterlife" caller - is not the limit, there are more good examples. In particular, the Ukrainian version of the "super-Jeans subscriber remains in the slender ranks of active users during the year (!) After the last call, improving statistics and delighting the heart of the company's shareholders.

Market prepaid-contract: delicate balance is easily upset

It is no secret that the bulk of new connections in all GSM-operators accounted for prepaid-subscribers, most of which do not differ over loyalty and easily move between different operators. Enough to one of our competitors offer anything really "delicious" as a significant number of light on growth of subscribers pay 90 rubles per ordinary SIM-card by adding the required hundreds of thousands of conventional "head to the statistics of new connections. You could even anything particularly advantageous for the subscriber is not offered, but just a little update / rename the existing tariffs and saved money to invest in advertising unwind 'new supervygodnogo suggestions. And here it would be interesting to understand the strategy and tactics of the BeeLine in extreme conditions to lack of numbering capacity. Sufficiently impressive response to the "Summer Jeans" we did not see a result, most new connections in June took over the MTS network, sometimes not even coping with the increased workload. The question is, what is the consequence, and that - reason. Reviewed two hypotheses:

1. The absence of spectacular summer-marketing initiatives BeeLine caused by a deficiency of numbering capacity, the company in June, did not seek actively to attract new subscribers.Again, the prospect of number capacity in the code 906 in early June were still vague and risk reserve rooms for the last year the race was dangerous connections. Benefit of a solid explanation of "no rooms available" reduces the negative impact of the backlog for the image operator
2. Nobody forbade shorten the "staying" the numbers are not up to five, and up to four months, it could compete with MTS for the chalet connection in the suburbs. But why? No matter how much lower prices for the recruitment of new subscribers, stats, connections will still be "disastrous" because of early re-use rooms, participate in the race becomes meaningless.

Mixed results

With very high probability on July results of MTS in Moscow will be the leader in terms of subscribers, the advantage of BeeLine at the end of June is minimal. Image BeeLine hurt seriously, do not become the same at each corner to hang posters with the text "The main reason for loss - lack of numbers." Financial implications for the operator calculates specialists, but they can hardly be called disastrous. Much worse - cheated out of subscribers, many of whom probably hoped for a summer-cottages "specials", the introduction of free AONa in Bi + - small consolation. To some extent affected and MTS as well as in non-response Beeline offer net calls for 3 cents seems redundant, would be enough, and 4-5 cents. The actual numbers effects of summer "spillover" of subscribers, we see only a few months later, after the reduction of statistical data to a common denominator.